Zambia must not pass a weak Tobacco Control law … healthy people generate sustainable socio-economic wealth

By Chapala Chikoyi, Zambian Public Education, Health Communication, and Media Analysis Specialist 

As Zambia’s Tobacco Control Bill 2025 goes to Parliament, we must confront an uncomfortable truth: a tobacco law without strong taxation measures is incomplete — and dangerously weak.

For years, the tobacco industry has relied on one powerful argument to resist stronger regulation: “If you raise taxes, illicit trade will increase.” It is a familiar script. It is repeated in media briefings, policy meetings, and closed-door lobbying. And it is misleading.

The evidence from across Africa shows that well-designed tobacco taxation reduces smoking, increases government revenue, and does not automatically fuel illicit trade. What fuels illicit trade is weak governance — not high excise.

THE GLOBAL STANDARD IS CLEAR

Under the World Health Organization’s MPOWER package of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, raising tobacco taxes is the single most effective tobacco control measure available to governments.

When excise taxes increase, cigarette prices rise. Youth initiation declines. Smokers quit or reduce consumption. Government revenue increases.

Yet taxation remains the least implemented pillar of tobacco control in many countries — often because of industry pressure.

SOUTH AFRICA SHOWS WHAT WORKS

In South Africa, significant excise increases beginning in the early 1990s led to higher cigarette prices, a dramatic decline in smoking, and increased government revenue. Consumption fell sharply. Revenue rose steadily.

Most importantly, smoking declined most among low-income groups — those who suffer the highest burden of tobacco-related diseases. That is not economic harm. That is public health protection.

KENYA DEFEATED THE ILLICIT TRADE ARGUMENT

In 2013, Kenya introduced a modern track-and-trace system — the Excisable Goods Management System (EGMS). The results were decisive: illicit trade declined significantly, revenue increased markedly, illegal factories were shut down, and enforcement improved.

Taxes increased. Smuggling decreased. Revenue grew.

The lesson is simple: strong systems — not low taxes — defeat illicit trade.

THE REALITY IN ZAMBIA

In Zambia, tobacco-related diseases — cancer, cardiovascular illness, chronic respiratory disease — continue to strain our health system.

Low-income communities carry the heaviest burden. They have the least access to healthcare. They are the most price-sensitive. They are the most vulnerable to cheap tobacco products. And they suffer disproportionately from tobacco-related disease.If the Tobacco Bill goes to Parliament without a strong taxation component, Zambia will have missed a critical opportunity. Regulation without taxation limits impact. Warnings without affordability measures reduce effectiveness. Enforcement without price intervention leaves demand intact.

A comprehensive tobacco law must include strong excise taxation that reduces affordability, licensing across the supply chain, modern tax stamps and track-and-trace systems, severe penalties for large-scale smuggling, and inter-agency cooperation. Without these, we risk passing a law that appears strong — but leaves the core driver of tobacco consumption untouched: affordability.

PARLIAMENT MUST CHOOSE EVIDENCE OVER FEAR

The tobacco industry will continue to argue that higher taxes increase illicit trade. But evidence from across Africa shows the opposite. Good governance reduces illicit trade. What is at stake is not just revenue. It is youth addiction, cancer wards, stroke units, families pushed into poverty by medical bills, lost productivity, and preventable deaths. The Tobacco Bill before Parliament is more than legislation. It is a test of political courage.

Zambia does not need to choose between revenue and health. Evidence shows we can achieve both. But only if we are bold enough to include strong tobacco taxation in our national response. The real danger is not higher tobacco taxes. The real danger is passing a law that does not go far enough — and paying for that weakness with Zambian lives.

The Tobacco Control Bill 2025 goes to the floor of Parliament just before the House is dissolved for elections. It may be up to our Members of Parliament to ensure that critical provisions — particularly those protecting public health and addressing affordability — are not lost in the process.

While the MPOWER framework highlights raising taxes as a core strategy, this component is absent in the current Bill due to persistent industry interference.

_Nonetheless, passing the Bill in its current form is still a right step. Policy and legislation are processes, and the Tobacco Control Bill No. 40. of  2025 represents a foundational milestone on which future measures — including robust taxation can build on._

Our task now is to safeguard this progress, continue evidence-based advocacy, and ensure that future amendments strengthen the law to fully protect the health of Zambians, especially the most vulnerable.