It’s just a thought…Recent By-elections AND Zambian Party Politics – Part 1 by Wynegood G. Malunga

Lusaka, Zambia
February 2, 2026

I was just thinking.

The Chawama constituency parliamentary and Kasama mayoral by-elections are over and I have heard mixed reactions from both winners and losers. The Patriotic Front is celebrating victory in Chawama while the United Party for National Development is celebrating victory in Kasama. Here is my thought.

I will start with Chawama constituency, won by Bright Nundwe, a candidate representing the Forum for Democracy and Development (FDD) which was used as the purpose vehicle for the Patriotic Front (PF), currently experiencing internal turmoil.

The FDD candidate got 8,065 votes (45%) while the UPND candidate received 6,542 votes (37%) of the total 18,096 votes cast. The opposition, social media commentators and others saw UPND’s defeat as a decline in the ruling party’s popularity. To the PF (FDD), it was a sure sign for a national victory in August 2026. I would caution the need for over excitement because I see the victory differently.

One needs to understand that Chawama has never been a UPND seat. Chawama has been a PF stronghold for years and the party was the holder of the parliamentary seat.

The PF and its allies celebrated but its leaders (whichever faction claiming to be the genuine one) must be concerned that in 2021, their parliamentary candidate, Tasila Lungu, received 62.9% of the votes cast while UPND’s Potipher Tembo got 35,9%. Forget about the low voter turnout and instead, look at the percentage drop in this election while the UPND gained a few points.

Meanwhile, the UPND has been kicking itself for losing and some party officials are blaming each other. Ordinary party members are disappointed while some seem devastated with the by-election loss in Chawama. Yes, something may have gone wrong with the UPND campaign strategy but again, I do not believe the party should really mourn about the loss but look at the whole picture. The party must also recognize that, in reality, it performed marginally better than in August 2021.

Zambians ought to discard the belief that a ruling party should be winning every by-election, especially when Zambia now has non-violent free and fair elections. To me, the loss in Chawama in no way means declining support. The PF just managed to hold the seat. Had it been a UPND seat lost to PF, then certainly, there would have been cause for serious concern within the ruling party.

On the other hand, the UPND victory in the Kasama mayoral election is one to be truly celebrated because that was a PF seat in what was supposedly a PF stronghold, based on the 2021 results.

In 2021, Theresa Kolala of the PF received 66.5% of the votes beating the UPND candidate, Bywell Simposya who got 28.9%. That was a huge defeat.

In the January 2026 by-election, Simposya, who was again the UPND candidate, received 41% and the FDD (PF) candidate, Peter Chikweti received 33%. This upset must definitely worry the PF.

The PF in Kasama should be concerned by the percentage points drop and, in their celebrations, the party, must see the January by-election victory as a worrying indicator to what may happen, should it be on the ballot, in August 2026. The UPND must consolidate their win leading to August 2026 with a strong campaign strategy.

In Chawama, the UPND has some heavy-duty work to do while the opposition, in whatever form of alliance that will emerge, must realize that it may not be the expected payday of yesteryears.

In Part 2, my thought on Zambian party politics.

It’s just a thought.

The author is a former Director of Marketing for a multinational corporation and is a keen follower and commentator on Global Affairs and, occasionally, domestic issues. The views expressed are entirely his own and do not reflect the views of any political party or the Zambian Government. © Wynegood Malunga