Global Economy 2026: Stability under structural pressure
Zambian Social Economist Kelvin Chisanga
By Kelvin Chisanga
The global economic outlook for 2026 points to a phase of relative stability but constrained growth, as the world economy adjusts to a new post-crisis reality.
After years of inflation shocks, tight monetary policy and geopolitical disruptions, global growth is expected to remain moderate, around 3 percent, reflecting resilience but also with clear structural limits.
Inflation is projected to ease further in 2026, moving closer to central bank targets across many economies.
However, inflationary pressures have not fully disappeared, particularly in services, food systems and energy-linked sectors.
As a result, central banks are likely to pursue cautious and gradual monetary easing, keeping financial stability and policy credibility at the centre of decision-making.
The global economy is also undergoing a total dimensions and targeted shift in trade dynamics.
Deep globalisation is giving way to strategic and security-driven trade, especially in critical minerals, energy and technology.
This transition raises costs but creates new opportunities for resource-rich and reform-oriented economies.
Technology investment, particularly in artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure, remains a key upside driver, though productivity gains will be uneven and slow to materialise.
Overall, 2026 is a transition year, marked by adjustment rather than acceleration.
Countries with strong policies, fiscal discipline and reform momentum will benefit, while those with weak fundamentals face heightened risks in a more demanding global environment.
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