A World on Fire: What the US-Israeli War on Iran means for Africa and Zambia

Analysis | March 1, 2026

By Dr. Cosmas Musumali

A World on Fire: What the US-Israeli War on Iran Means for Africa and Zambia

A calculated geopolitical gamble with consequences that will outlast its architects

On the morning of Saturday, February 28, 2026, the world woke up to a dramatically different Middle East.

The United States and Israel launched a massive, coordinated military assault on Iran — codenamed Operation Epic Fury by Washington and Operation Roaring Lion by Tel Aviv.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the strikes. Explosions rocked Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, and several other Iranian cities.

Iran retaliated almost immediately, firing missiles at Israel and at US military bases across the Middle East.

The world held its breath. And it should — because what is unfolding is not simply another regional conflict.

It is a seismic event whose tremors will be felt far beyond the Persian Gulf, including here in Zambia and across sub-Saharan Africa.

1. A Calculated Move, Not a Sudden Crisis

Make no mistake — this war did not happen overnight. For years, the United States and Israel have watched Iran grow into a formidable regional power: building proxy networks across Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen; advancing its nuclear enrichment programme; and developing long-range missile capabilities.

Iran had become the fulcrum of resistance to American and Israeli dominance in the Middle East.

What changed in early 2026 was the perception of a unique window of opportunity. Iran’s economy had effectively collapsed — the rial was in freefall, prices had spiralled beyond the reach of ordinary Iranians, and by late December 2025, massive nationwide protests had erupted in over 100 cities, described as the largest uprising since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Thousands of protesters were killed by the Iranian government’s crackdown. A regime fighting its own people is a regime stretched thin.

At the same time, nuclear talks between the US and Iran — mediated by Oman — had reportedly made significant progress, with Iran agreeing to halt uranium stockpiling.

Yet President Donald Trump chose war anyway. The Washington Post reported that Trump was lobbied aggressively by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The decision, in the final analysis, was about seizing the moment to crush a regional rival while it was on its knees — not about any imminent nuclear threat.

2. Emboldened Powers With Little Left to Fear

To understand why this attack happened now, one must look at the psychology of both Washington and Tel Aviv in early 2026. Both actors have become dangerously emboldened.

Just weeks before the Iran strikes, US special forces had stormed Caracas in a helicopter-borne operation, seizing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

The audacity of that action — condemned by many, but met with no meaningful global consequence — signalled that the Trump administration had effectively abandoned the post-World War II norms of sovereignty and international law. When boldness is rewarded with impunity, boldness escalates.

Israel, too, came into this moment riding a wave of military confidence. Having devastated Hamas in Gaza and significantly degraded Hezbollah in Lebanon, having fractured the unity of the Arab world, having conducted targeted assassinations deep inside Iranian territory, and having struck Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 — Israel’s military and intelligence apparatus had rarely felt more powerful.

For Netanyahu, attacking Iran was not just a strategic calculation; it was the culmination of a lifelong political mission.

The combined effect: two nuclear-armed, militarily dominant allies, both operating with minimal restraint, both convinced that the moment was now or never.

3. Why This Matters for Zambia and Africa

Zambians could be forgiven for wondering what a war in the Persian Gulf has to do with life in Lusaka, Kitwe, or Chipata. The answer is: quite a lot.

Oil and Fuel Prices

The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes — runs along Iran’s coast. Iran has already threatened to close it, and any prolonged disruption would send global oil prices soaring. Zambia imports all of its petroleum products. Higher oil prices mean higher transport costs, higher food prices, higher costs for mining operations — and ultimately, higher inflation for ordinary Zambians.

Copper and the Global Economy

A destabilised Middle East rattles global financial markets. When markets are rattled, demand for industrial metals — including copper, Zambia’s economic lifeblood — tends to fall. A prolonged conflict could suppress copper prices at precisely the moment Zambia needs revenue to service its restructured debt and fund development.

The Erosion of International Law

For small and medium-sized nations like Zambia, the rules-based international order is not an abstraction — it is a form of protection. When powerful nations attack sovereign states without UN authorisation, declare regime change as a policy objective, and face no meaningful accountability, it weakens the very framework that protects smaller nations from the ambitions of larger ones. Africa has bitter historical memory of what the world looks like when great powers operate without restraint.

4. A Generation of Consequences

History offers a sobering lesson here. Iran is not a failed state or a small militia — it is a nation of 90 million people with a 3,000-year civilisational identity. External military attacks, even on deeply unpopular regimes, have a remarkable tendency to consolidate nationalism rather than dissolve it. The 1953 CIA-orchestrated coup that overthrew Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh is still a foundational wound in the Iranian psyche — 73 years later. Whatever regime emerges from this conflict, resentment of America and Israel will run deeper than ever before, and it will endure across generations.

The destruction of the Iranian state structure will also create a power vacuum that no one has a credible plan to fill. Turkey, Saudi Arabia, various armed factions, and regional militias will compete for influence in the ruins. New conflicts — with their own logic, their own grievances, their own unpredictable trajectories — will ignite.

Perhaps most dangerously, this war sends a clear message to every nation watching: nuclear weapons are the only true guarantee of survival. Iran was attacked precisely because it had not fully acquired them. North Korea — which has them — has never been bombed. That lesson will not go unlearned. The global nuclear non-proliferation framework, already under enormous strain, may not survive this precedent.

The Fundamental Question

There is a question that history will eventually answer about the events of February 28, 2026: did the United States and Israel create a more stable and peaceful world — or did they plant seeds of chaos that will outlast every leader who made this decision?

Based on the evidence of every comparable gamble in living memory — Iraq in 2003, Libya in 2011, Afghanistan across two decades — the answer does not inspire confidence. What has been unleashed is not a surgical correction to a dangerous regional order. It is a fire, and no one yet knows how far it will burn.

For Zambia, for Africa, and for the global South — nations that had no vote in this decision and will bear a share of its costs — the task now is to watch carefully, advocate loudly within multilateral forums for the restoration of international law, and prepare for an economic and geopolitical landscape that just became significantly more turbulent.

 

About The Author